The Kansas City Chiefs are staring down a do-or-die stretch in the 2024-2025 NFL season, clinging to a sliver of playoff hope after falling to ninth in the AFC standings on November 28, 2025. With five games left — and a Christmas Day rematch against the Denver Broncos looming — their fate isn’t in the hands of fate. It’s in their hands. Win out, and they’re in. Lose even one, and the door slams shut. It’s that simple. And brutal.
How Did We Get Here?
It wasn’t supposed to be like this. After winning three straight Super Bowls from 2019 to 2023, the Kansas City Chiefs were expected to cruise through the AFC again. But injuries, inconsistent offensive line play, and a defense that’s surrendered 28+ points in four of their last six games have turned what should’ve been a coronation into a survival test. Their 7-5 record through 12 weeks looks respectable on paper — until you look at the schedule. They’ve lost to the Denver Broncos (19-22), Buffalo Bills (21-28), and Dallas Cowboys (28-31) in the past month. That’s not a fluke. That’s a pattern.The Playoff Math: What They Need
Under current NFL rules, only the top seven teams in the AFC qualify for the postseason. Right now, the Chiefs sit at #9 — behind the Houston Texans (#8), Baltimore Ravens (#10), Miami Dolphins (#11), Cincinnati Bengals (#12), and Cleveland Browns (#13). The math? They need to win all five remaining games to have a realistic shot. Even then, they’ll need help. According to PlayoffStatus.com, which models every possible outcome, Kansas City’s odds of making the playoffs jump from 12% to 78% if they go 5-0. Lose one, and it drops to under 15%. The most likely scenario? A 4-1 finish. That puts them at 11-6 — a record that’s historically made the playoffs about 60% of the time. But this year? The AFC is deeper than ever. Eleven teams are within one game of each other in the win column. There’s no room for error.The Final Five: Schedule Breakdown
- Week 14 (Dec. 7, 8:20 pm UTC): Houston Texans (home) — The Texans are 6-6 and fighting for their own playoff lives. A win here is non-negotiable.
- Week 15 (Dec. 14, 1:00 pm UTC): Los Angeles Chargers (home) — 7-4 and dangerous. The Chiefs beat them last year in overtime. Can they do it again?
- Week 16 (Dec. 21, 1:00 pm UTC): Tennessee Titans (away) — 1-10. This is the must-win. No excuses.
- Week 17 (Dec. 25, 8:15 pm UTC): Denver Broncos (home) — Christmas Day. The rematch. The Broncos are 9-2. They beat the Chiefs 22-19 in Week 11. This game could decide everything.
- Week 18 (Jan. 4, TBD): Las Vegas Raiders (away) — 2-9. A win here should be automatic. But after a brutal schedule, fatigue could be the real enemy.
Why the Broncos Game Is Everything
The Christmas Day showdown isn’t just a game. It’s a referendum. The Denver Broncos have the league’s fifth-best defense, a top-10 pass rush, and a quarterback in Bo Nix who’s playing like a veteran. The Chiefs lost to them by three points in Week 11 — a game where Patrick Mahomes threw two interceptions and the offensive line gave up five sacks. If Kansas City can’t solve Denver’s pressure, they won’t solve anyone else. And here’s the twist: if the Chiefs lose to Denver, they’ll need the Baltimore Ravens to lose two of their last three — including a game against the Cincinnati Bengals — just to stay alive. That’s a tall order.What the Coaches Are Saying
Head coach Andy Reid, ever the calm presence, told reporters after the Dallas loss: “We don’t control who’s ahead of us. We only control what we do on Sundays.” But his players are feeling the pressure. Defensive end George Karlaftis said, “It’s not about being the best team in the AFC. It’s about being the last team standing when the clock hits zero.” Meanwhile, quarterback Patrick Mahomes, nursing a mild ankle sprain, said: “I’ve been in this situation before. We know what’s at stake. We’re not done yet.”
The Bigger Picture
This isn’t just about one season. The Kansas City Chiefs are the NFL’s modern dynasty. Three titles in five years. But dynasties don’t end with a whimper. They end with a loss you can’t recover from. If they miss the playoffs this year, it’ll raise questions: Is Mahomes declining? Is the offensive line too old? Did the defense crack under pressure? For now, though, there’s still hope. And in Kansas City, hope is all they’ve ever needed.Frequently Asked Questions
Can the Kansas City Chiefs still make the playoffs with a 4-1 finish?
Yes, but it’s unlikely. A 4-1 finish (11-6 record) gives the Chiefs a 32% chance of making the playoffs based on current tiebreaker scenarios and projected outcomes from PlayoffStatus.com. They’d need at least two of the teams ahead of them — like the Ravens, Bengals, or Dolphins — to lose key games, especially in Week 18. A 11-6 record has made the playoffs in 6 out of the last 10 seasons, but this year’s AFC is the deepest in NFL history, making it harder than ever.
Why is the Christmas Day game against the Broncos so critical?
The Broncos are 9-2 and have already beaten the Chiefs 22-19 this season. A loss in this game would drop Kansas City to 7-6, making their path nearly impossible. Even a win doesn’t guarantee anything — but a loss all but eliminates them. The Broncos’ defense has been elite, and Mahomes has struggled against their pressure. This is the most difficult game on the schedule, and the timing couldn’t be worse.
How many teams are competing for the final playoff spots in the AFC?
Eleven teams in the AFC are within one game of each other in the win-loss column as of November 28, 2025. Only seven make the playoffs, meaning four teams will be left out despite having winning records. The race is so tight that the difference between the 7th and 13th seed is just one game — the most competitive playoff picture since the 2020 season.
What’s the worst-case scenario for the Chiefs?
The worst-case scenario is a 3-2 finish, dropping them to 10-7. That record would likely be good enough for 8th or 9th place — but not enough to overtake the teams ahead, especially if the Texans, Ravens, or Dolphins win their remaining games. Even with a 10-7 record, the Chiefs would need a tiebreaker advantage, which they don’t currently hold. They’d miss the playoffs for the first time since 2020.
Has any team with a 7-5 record made the playoffs after winning their final five games?
Yes — the 2020 Tennessee Titans went 7-5 through 12 games, won their final five, and made the playoffs as the 6th seed. But they benefited from a weaker AFC South and a weaker overall conference. This year’s AFC is significantly deeper, making the Chiefs’ path harder. Still, history shows it’s possible — if they play perfectly.
What happens if the Chiefs miss the playoffs?
Missing the playoffs would trigger a major organizational reckoning. With Patrick Mahomes under contract through 2031, the focus would shift to whether the offensive line, defensive coaching staff, or front office needs a shake-up. It would also be the first time since 2019 that the Chiefs didn’t reach the AFC Championship Game. For a franchise that’s been the standard-bearer of the NFL, that’s unthinkable — and potentially a turning point.
